Svetlana Maltseva and Andrey Dmitriev explain how to use a Big Data Flow in dynamic system crisis detecting, at the 2014 PMA Conference
One of the presentations given in the 2nd day of the PMA 2014 Conference was brought by Svetlana Maltseva and Andrey Dmitriev, of the Russian National Research University High School of Economics, and spoke about the importance of using Big Data Flow for detecting dynamic system crises.
Drafted from the research they have conducted, titled “Dynamic system crisis’s detecting using big data flow”, the presentation focused on the possibility of analyzing market risks, conceptualized here as high fluctuations in price ranges, through the use of big real-time data from the market.
To this purpose, the authors have developed a mathematical model for detecting an imminent crisis, within a non-linear dynamic simulated system, that emulates price formation within the steel market.
The mathematical model they have proposed takes into account the fact that for reaching the final product, within the steel market, one needs to take into account a massive amount of variables, roughly within the following:
- Foreign currency exchange rates;
- Raw material prices;
- Standard price for a product at the stock exchange;
- Macro-economic factors: steel production prices, energy prices, etc.
However, lacking extensive data from all these variables, the model presented by Svetlana Maltseva and Andrey Dmitriev is roughly based on the EUR/USD exchange cross-rate. Thus, the authors were able to design a non-linear model, on the assumption that the basis of price formation is a dynamic structure, which can be determined mathematically.
What they have determined is a system that generates forecasts for the market prices for steel products, which can be modelled to accommodate subsumed systems.
More effective is the fact that their system is apt to be shared on different types of technological interfaces, in order to gather data in real-time and provide support to the decision system.
Tags: Performance Management, PMA 2014 Conference
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